The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed lower amid fluctuations, with tug-of-war between sellers and buyers and macro policy disturbances affecting the market [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Morning Tin News on May 19, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) opened lower during the night session and continued to fluctuate downward, closing at 263,470 yuan/mt, down 0.75% from the previous trading day. Total open interest reached 28,700 lots.

Macro: (1) US Treasury Secretary: The US is focusing tariff discussions on 18 key partnerships. If countries do not negotiate in good faith, tariffs will revert to April 2 levels. For many smaller trade relationships, a fixed tariff rate can be set directly. (Neutral) (2) Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council: For centralized procurement of official vehicles, domestically produced cars, especially new energy vehicles, should be prioritized. (Bullish ★) (3) According to Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that due to US government restrictions on exporting Hopper architecture-based H20 chips to China, the company is reevaluating its Chinese market strategy and will not launch any more Hopper series chips in the future. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① Trump claimed that India proposed reducing US tariffs, but he is not in a hurry to reach an agreement. ② Vietnam and the US held their first ministerial-level direct negotiations. ③ Japanese media: Japan is considering providing subsidies for Tesla charging stations in tariff negotiations with the US. (Neutral)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Alphamin Resources Corp.'s Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 mt of metal tin between April 15 and May 11, 2025, achieving the expected processing recovery rate. Tin production commenced by processing stockpiled raw ore from the mine, initially from the Mpama North plant, followed by the restart of the Mpama South plant on April 19, 2025. Underground ore blasting and transportation began in the last week of April 2025, while the mine development rate also increased. Since the restart of the mine, the first batch of fully documented and approved tin concentrates for export was shipped by truck on May 9, 2025. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: After the Labour Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed operations, and there was some release of low-price restocking demand, but high-price transactions remained sluggish. (Bearish ★)

Spot Market: High prices suppressed demand, and trading gradually slowed. Smelters held firm on prices and were reluctant to sell, while traders actively concluded spot transactions at fixed prices, with some downstream enterprises restocking at low prices. After prices rose, downstream sentiment turned more cautious.